The Ministry of Industry (Kemenperin) estimates that the garment industry can grow at the level of 10.44% in the first half of 2022. This growth is driven by a surge in demand in Ramadan 2022. Director of the Textile, Leather and Footwear Industry of the Ministry of Industry, Elis Masitoh, noted that the production volume of the apparel industry could grow 10.44% on an annual basis in the first quarter of 2022. However, Elis assessed that the volume of demand for the apparel industry in Ramadan 2022 was only around 70% - 75% of the pre-Covid-19 pandemic.

"(In addition, this prognosis) ignores PPKM (Implementation of Restrictions on Community Activities). If it turns out that PPKM level 3 (is implemented in the first quarter of 2022), it may be even lower (compared to the performance of Ramadan 2019)," said Elis, Friday (18/2).

In the second quarter of 2022, Elis predicts that the garment industry's production volume growth will slow to 10.15% on an annual basis. In semester II-2022, the growth of the garment industry continued to decline to 0.16% in the fourth quarter of 2022.

However, the performance of the garment industry throughout 2022 will be in the green zone for the first time during the pandemic or grow 5.84% on an annual basis. Meanwhile, the national garment industry in 2020 fell by 8.89%, while in 2021 it fell by 3.31%.

The largest garment industry growth since 2017 occurred in 2019, which was 19.48% on an annual basis. This figure is higher than the beverage industry growth of 19.09% in the same year.

In addition, the textile industry or the garment raw material industry is projected to fluctuate growth. The largest textile industry growth will occur in the third quarter of 2022 at 5.88% on an annual basis, while the lowest is in the fourth quarter of 2022, which shrinks by 1.02%.

Elis said the growth of the textile industry will be high since July 2022 to meet the demand for the garment industry in facing the Ramadan 2023 market. For information, each supply chain will take at least 3-4 months to meet the demands of their respective consumers.

The months of Ramadan in 2023 and 2024 will be in the first quarter of each year. Thus, the garment industry will have two surges of demand in 2023.

"Hopefully the purchasing power and the pandemic will be over (in 2023), and the economy will really recover," Elis said.

 Previously, Elis recorded that the average utilization of the textile and textile product (TPT) industry throughout 2021 was 60%. However, by the end of 2021, it had touched the 75% level for the upstream and intermediate industries, while the garment industry's utilization was at 85%.

"The average (utilization in 2021) is 60% because at the beginning of the third quarter of 2021, Java and Bali PPKM levels 3 and 4. Only export-oriented (TPT industry) can produce, even then only 50% (of the total installed capacity) , for a domestic orientation can't produce at all," said Elis.

Secretary General of the Indonesian Filament Yarn and Fiber Producers Association (APSyFI) noted that the realization of textile industry production growth was still moving in the red zone in the second quarter of 2021 and the third quarter of 2021 on an annual basis. However, the improvement in demand in the fourth quarter of 2021 will make textile production throughout 2021 better than the 2020 achievement.

Redma assessed that the improvement in demand in the fourth quarter of 2021 will continue this year. According to him, demand can rise up to 40% under normal conditions, but with current conditions, textile demand in the first semester of 2022 can only increase by 15% on an annual basis.