The military coup in Myanmar caught the world's attention. Myanmar has seized power after detaining Aung San Suu Kyi and other democratically elected leaders. The military has accused Suu Kyi's party's landslide victory in the recent general election marred by fraud.
Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF) economist Bhima Yudhistira explained Myanmar has several important industrial locations. The industry is particularly the automotive industry, which is dominated by Japanese companies and clothing textile companies. So part of it becomes the outsourcing of global brands as well as China.
"The coup had disturbed the production of factories such as Suzuki and Nissan," he said.
According to Bhima, ideally the reduction in factory production in Myanmar could increase the production of similar companies in Indonesia.
"If the government and Indonesian businessmen take the opportunity to encourage factory relocation from Myanmar to industrial estates in Indonesia, then the political turmoil in Myanmar will benefit Indonesia," he said.
However, it should be noted that Indonesia's competitor, Vietnam, is also eyeing the relocation of automotive and garment factories from Myanmar.
Regarding exports, according to Bhima, the effect will not be too big. This is because Indonesia's exports to Myanmar are relatively small.
"Indonesia's exports to Myanmar total 1.03 million USD. To Thailand, 5 times that amount or 5 million USD throughout 2020. For ASEAN, the total exports are 32.5 billion USD. Myanmar is only 0.3 percent of total exports to Asean, "he said.
Contacted separately, International Relations practitioner and lecturer Dinna Prapto Raharja said the coup in Myanmar brought instability inside Myanmar.
The masses have the potential to become increasingly nervous if the military simply wants to return to power regardless of the election results. Regarding the economy, he said when Covid-19 the economies of all countries were already bad and there were recessions everywhere, including in Indonesia.
"So maybe it will not be too different from now, apart from that the sectors that are normally surplus to Myanmar must be prepared to reduce their income, especially if there is a riot," said Dinna.
He continued, globally this coup would further strengthen the trend of authoritarianism in the ASEAN region. In addition, the space to care about human rights and democracy issues continues to run low.
"This means that if there is foreign policy pressure from the US campaigning against authoritarian countries, our region is vulnerable," he said.
In this situation, it means that negotiations on foreign relations depend on the strength of bilateral relations. Dinna said the Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs needed to be smart in utilizing the currently increasingly limited budget.
Also contacted separately, University of Indonesia Professor of International Law Hikmahanto Juwana said it was too early to assess the impact of the Myanmar coup on Indonesia.
"Currently, the assessment is too early, right? The problem is that the coup government cannot confirm whether it will survive or not, "he said, Friday (5/2/2021).
He continued, there must be pressure from western countries such as the US, UK and others who want the return of civilian rule and respect for election results that are considered fraudulent by the military.
He explained that what needed to be ensured was the interference of outside countries in this conflict.
"Suu Kyi can get support from western countries. While the coup government is reportedly getting support from China, "he said.
Then, if this is true and the conflict becomes a civil war, it will trigger instability in Southeast Asia.
"That's where Indonesia must be vigilant. Cooperation between ASEAN countries is needed to prevent this, "he added.
Furthermore, according to him, currently there is nothing that Indonesia can do, because the state must respect their domestic affairs. This is as stipulated in Article 2 of the ASEAN Charter which states the principle of non-intervention in domestic affairs.