The potential risk of a recession in the United States (US) which increases is considered to be hampering the performance of exports and investment in the country. Permata Bank Chief Economist Josua Pardede said that the potential for a US recession was open, in line with the Fed's aggressive monetary tightening policy in order to contain inflation. Even at the last FOMC meeting, the Fed predicted that US economic growth would be slower than previously estimated, while inflation is expected to rise higher. Josua said that high inflation followed by a slowdown in economic growth has the potential to push the US into a state of stagflation, which then has an impact on the purchasing power of the people in that country.
"The recession in the US has the potential to push down Indonesia's exports and investment flows from the US," he said, Tuesday (21/6/2022).
According to Josua, the sector that will be significantly affected is the export-oriented textile sector. The reason is, most of Indonesia's textile exports are directed to the US.
"So if there is a demand disruption in the US, this industry will tend to have the most significant impact on the Indonesian economy," he explained.
In addition, in terms of the financial sector, Josua said that a recession that could potentially occur in the US would push capital outflows from the domestic financial market, both from the stock market and bond markets. This condition will encourage an increase in yields on government bonds.
Nevertheless, Josua assessed that BI will optimize the rupiah stabilization policy through a triple intervention which also supports stability in the SBN market.
"BI will also consider normalizing its benchmark interest rate in order to anchor inflation expectations and encourage rupiah stability," he said.
In addition, according to Josua, prudent fiscal policy management by pushing the fiscal deficit to a maximum level of 3 percent of GDP in 2023 will support the confidence of market players, especially foreign investors that fiscal consolidation will support debt and fiscal sustainability which will ultimately provide support to the economy. government securities market.