In the current situation, Indonesia was said to have won a lot. The reason is, the surge in international commodity prices appears like a windfall for Indonesia. Exports soared to a surplus of state revenues for the fifth straight month. This has made Indonesia's economic fundamentals stronger. Although there is little pressure on inflation. On the other hand, the United States (US) is very close to a recession due to an aggressive increase in the reference interest rate (Fed Funds Rate) in order to reduce the spike in inflation. This was recognized by the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, who spoke on Wednesday at the European Central Bank Forum. Powell said he could not guarantee the US economy would avoid a recession due to aggressive interest rate hikes.
The statement emphasized that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates to reduce inflation, even though the US economy is at risk of a recession. This condition is a frightening specter for many countries, because it can cause a financial crisis.
INDEF's Executive Director, Tauhid Ahmad, said the US recession had a clear impact on Indonesia. The initial impact can be seen from the turmoil in the financial markets. The flow of capital moves outward (capital outflow), thus depressing the rupiah.
"Now what is happening is capital outflow and the exchange rate can penetrate Rp. 15,000 per US dollar," he said in an interview with CNBC Indonesia, Thursday (30/6/2022).
Indonesia's exports will also be disrupted as demand from the US declines, particularly for textiles and garments. The US is Indonesia's main trading partner besides China, Japan and Thailand.
"So there will be implications for imported inflation," he added.
Maybank economist, Myrdal Gunarto, must focus on maintaining inflation with Bank Indonesia (BI). If not, it will erode people's purchasing power which is the main support for Indonesia's economic growth.
It is known that the national economy is currently recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Indonesian economy is estimated to still be able to reach the level of 5% in 2022 and 2023 amidst many countries threatened by recession.