The government allowed people to go home this year, after the previous 2 years being held back due to the high number of the Covid-19 pandemic. It is estimated that the number of people who go home will be more than 80 million people. Deputy for Macroeconomic and Financial Coordination, Iskandar Simorangkir, said consumption based on the expenditure component will increase during the Idul Fitri homecoming momentum. According to him, consumption such as transportation, industries such as food, clothing and others, will increase between 10% and 15% higher than consumption in the normal period, despite an increase in the VAT rate of 1%.
"So even though VAT increased by 11% from 10%, not all of them were subject to 11% VAT." explained Iskandar, Tuesday (11/4).
Meanwhile, Iskandar said, taking into account the consumption share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 54% to 56%, he estimated that the additional GDP growth due to Eid was 0.5% to 0.8%.
Similarly, Economist at the Center of Reform on Economics (Core) Indonesia Yusuf Rendy said that the transportation and warehousing sector will become a business sector that will increase from the relaxation of mobility during going home.
According to him, with the easing of mobility growth from the transportation sector will return to pre-pandemic levels, the contribution of the transportation and warehousing sector to growth sources will be in the range of 0.5% to 0.8%.
In addition to the transportation sector, the sector that benefits from being allowed to go home is the food and beverage accommodation sector.
“This sector has the opportunity to grow, especially supported by those who do not go home but take advantage of the Eid holiday period. The sector's contribution to growth will be in the range of 0.4% to 0.5%," said Yusuf.
So, he continued, if these two sectors grow, the demand for goods has the opportunity to grow. As a result, growth in the manufacturing industry sector, especially for the food and beverage sub-sector and textiles and textile products can also grow.
Yusuf said that growth will occur because demand for these two products generally increases when Eid is approaching. So that in the downstream sector, for example, the trade sector for food and beverage products as well as textile products such as clothes and headscarves, and others will increase.
In general, the contribution of manufacturing and trade to sources of economic growth is in the range of 1% and is one of the largest in Indonesia's GDP.
